DATA-DRIVEN ZONING FOR MINIMARKET DEVELOPMENT: ADDRESSING SPATIAL IMBALANCE IN BOGOR REGENCY

Abstract

The rapid expansion of minimarkets in many Indonesian regions has raised concerns about uneven retail distribution and potential market concentration. In Bogor Regency, strong household consumption, population growth, and residential expansion have encouraged modern retail growth, yet outlet distribution remains uneven across subdistricts. This study analyzes the spatial imbalance of minimarket distribution and develops a data-driven zoning framework to support more balanced retail development. The research applies a quantitative approach using secondary data at the subdistrict level. A multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is used to estimate the ideal number of minimarkets based on population size, land area, and the number of traditional retail outlets. The estimated values are then compared with existing outlets to classify subdistricts into areas with potential room for expansion, relatively balanced conditions, or a need for closer growth control. The findings show that minimarket distribution varies considerably and is strongly associated with population concentration and settlement patterns. At the regency level, existing outlets remain within the regression-based optimal corridor, but subdistrict-level analysis reveals clear spatial variation. The zoning classification identifies 15 green zones, 17 yellow zones, and 8 red zones. These findings indicate that minimarket planning should be differentiated according to territorial characteristics and regression-based benchmarks to support evidence-based retail zoning in Bogor Regency.